This will change the world!”
“We're going to make a fortune!”
“THIS technology is the answer we’ve been searching for!”
Hmmm. Maybe, maybe not!
In that case, how exactly should we decide where we should focus our time and/or our money as the pace of innovation continues?
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a useful tool to assess tech advances, and shows the journey that tech trends take over time.
The cycle has 5 phases:
🔵 Phase 1: Innovation Trigger 🔵
The Innovation Trigger is when a new technology emerges. The tech makes headline news, and people get excited. Expectations surrounding the tech start to grow.
🔶 Phase 2: Peak of Inflated Expectations 🔶
This is the peak of the rollercoaster.🎢
Suddenly EVERY problem will be solved using this tech! (This is where the "hype" comes into it.) Caution is key - this is where investors and startups can make the wrong decisions, and may end up "backing the wrong horse."🤔
🟡 Phase 3: Trough of Disillusionment 🟡
Reality sets in. Erm, maybe the tech isn't that amazing after all...
Problems and barriers to usage become more obvious. Ventures may fail, or lose value, and confidence dips as flaws with the tech's reliability, security, accuracy, safety, or its impact on people, the environment or other issues come to light.
🟢 Phase 4: Slope of Enlightenment 🟢
Consumers and/or businesses start to find affordable, practical uses for the tech, and access spreads beyond scientists, elite innovation teams, or people with specialist skill sets. We start to understand how best to use it, and there are clear wins and benefits.
At this point, it could be fairly save to say that the innovation is here to stay and as user adoption grows it could well be a sound investment (after completion of some careful analysis and due diligence, of course!)
I think this is where ChatGPT (openai.com) and Llama2 (ai.meta.com/llama) have brought us to with generative AI. Let me know in the comments if you agree with this, or not!
(Other major players include Google's Bard and Anthropic's Claude.)
🟠 Phase 5: Plateau of Productivity 🟠
The tech matures, and becomes part of everyday life. For example, smartphones!📱The tech is reliable, easy to use/access, and adds real value.
Tips & takeaways:
1️⃣ Understanding where tech trends are on the Hype Cycle can help with good decision-making in terms of investments, study, adoption of tech for business, and generally knowing when to get involved.
2️⃣ Not every tech advancement will reach stages 4 and 5. Some will stay niche, and some will die altogether.
3️⃣ Research examples or "use cases" for how tech may impact your industry or profession. Check for new advances through content from futurists, podcasts, webinars and tech blogs.
4️⃣ Start experimenting with new/unfamiliar tech via free accounts, software demos, or training. You're unlikely to "break" anything, and the more you explore, the more normal this will become. As a result, it will be easier for you to take advantage of new opportunities as they arise!
Updates come out each year as Gartner reviews the latest tech advances and where they sit within the Hype Cycle.
You can see an example from 2022 below.
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